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Scientist urge to prepare for a bird flu pandemic

08/Oct/2006: ‘Start preparing for the next flu pandemic’, is the message from the organizer of an expedition to unearth samples of the devastating Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 and 1919. Kristy Duncan, a scientist at the University of Toronto, warns that it is just a matter of time before another deadly bird flu pandemic strikes the world.

Building supplies of food, water, medication and other essential items could help us to tide over the bird flu pandemic, if one strikes.

Duncan, who is also the author of the book, ‘Hunting the 1918 Flu: One Scientist’s Search for a Killer Virus’ said that there are strong similarities between how the Spanish Flu virus killed and how today’s H5N1 strain kills, which raises fear of another deadly pandemic. Duncan had led a scientific expedition during the 1990’s, to exhume the bodies of a group of Norwegian miners, who died in the Spanish flu pandemic.

The subtype of the H1N1 strain (responsible for the Spanish flu endemic) and the current H5N1 strain of the Influenza virus, mainly kill the young and healthy, instead of the elderly and the infants.

Many countries have not yet prepared any emergency plans to counter a bird-flu out break. Only 15% of the U.S businesses have a contingency plan in place for a pandemic, even after the U.S president urged all the businesses in U.S to develop an emergency plan to face a pandemic. The case is much worse in Canada, where only 4% of the businesses have a contingency plan for flu pandemic.

An estimate by the U.S Centers for Disease Control, say that the next pandemic to hit a place like Toronto would leave 700,000 people needing medical attention and 40,000 needing hospitalization. Duncan said that a crisis of this proportion could not be managed, if people are not prepared for it.

She added that, to prepare for a pandemic, people should stock pile food and water that could last up to 6 to 8 weeks and store prescription and non-prescription drugs and other medicines that could last for the same period.

The World Health Organization has been warning of another pandemic ever since 1968, when the last of the three pandemics of the 20th century, occurred. Duncan feels that people are lucky this time, as this is the first time in history they have an opportunity to prepare for a pandemic.

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