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Predicting Indian monsoons

10/Sep/2006: A team of researchers from the U.S National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulders, Colorado, claim to have found how some El Nino events have more influence on the Indian monsoon, while the others do not.

The findings of this team can help in predicting droughts and floods in India, more accurately. Warming of western Pacific during El Nino is known to cause drought in India as the warming changes the evaporation from the seas and the wind patterns reducing rainfall during the summer in India. Drought warnings to India have been issued based on the surface temperatures in the Pacific.

The current forecasts on the Indian monsoon based on El Nino events have not been able to explain the reasons for monsoon variability, since all El Nino events are not identical. Some El Nino events warms the pacific in its western or central side, while the others warm the eastern pacific more. So it has been difficult to predict the droughts in India based on the warming of the Pacific.

The team from the U.S National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulders analyzed the recent monsoon patterns in India and concluded that the western-shifted warming of the pacific is causing more droughts in India. So analyzing the El Nino patterns can help in the better prediction of the monsoons in India. The team warns that India could face more droughts in future as the El Nino patterns indicates that the El Nino events in future will warm the western Pacific more frequently, but changes in sea temperatures may alter this pattern.

However the team feels that this method can only be used to predict the major droughts and not the small fluctuations in the monsoon. Accurate forecasts of drought and rain is crucial for the Indian economy as agriculture contributes 20% of its GDP.

Kesavan Siva

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